HOW I SEE ELECTION 2020 Part 2: My Data never dies theory – Dr.Nii Amu Darko

Data never dies. A good researcher or analyst updates and upgrades the relevance of data. That is what I do, that makes me sound ‘’prophetic’’ to some of you. To update and upgrade data, you must have form grip on the initial data. Below is what I wrote in Part 1:

My mood and swing method establishes antecedent data and the status quo, and then capture the mood of the observed population to estimate the swing that determines the outcome.’

To answer some questions on my predictions, let me establish the antecedent data. The 1st Republic and 2nd Republic elections of 1960 and 1969 were rigged. The purest post-colonial election to date is the 1979 elections. I will use the 2nd round as the foundational data.

CandidateARBARCRERGARNRURVRWRNat
Limann42.438.371.055.8 72.6 66.2 74.3 88.4 78.6 62.0
Owusu57.461.729.044.2 27.4 33.8 25.7 11.6 21.4 38.0
Source: Legon Observer 13th July 1979 & Elections in Ghana by Alex Frempong   
                 
CandidateARBARCRER GAR NR UR VR WR Nat
Limann631415 10 12 16 16 13 105
Owusu161007 0 2 0 0 0 35

Source: Legon Observer 13th July 1979 & Elections in Ghana by Alex Frempong

I can write a whole book on the 1979 elections, but today I focus on the key points in the 2 tables.

Owusu, one of the most eminent Asante lawyers and a descendant of Anokye, a co-founder of Asante polled only 57.4% of the vote. At the peak of Asante nationalism, the NLM also got only 57% in 1956.

Hilla Limann, a hardly known Northerner, polled 88.4% in Volta. Really? Yes. Ewes rejected Victor. You do not insult a people and expect them to vote for you. In the 1st round Paa Willie, Nana’s uncle won in 5 constituencies: Some-Aflao (Ketu-South), Anlo, Keta, Avenor and Biakoye. Paa Willie won in only 4 seats in ER. All these 5 areas voted Limann in the 2nd rounds.

It did not start with Paa Willie ooh! Danquah and the UP won in only 2 constituencies in the rigged 1960 elections. Do you know those seats? Anlo South and Ho West.

When the Progress Party came to power in 1969, what did Busia and Owusu do the Ewes who gave UP victory in 2 constituencies? They ravaged them. Paa Willie, noted for his great humility was not part of the inexplicable anti-Ewe agenda of Busia’s team. The Ewes knew this, and it showed in 1979.

Read Also; Ghana Election 2020: Dr. Nii Amu Darko’s Mood & Swing Theory

Instead of following in the stead of his uncle and great uncle, Nana decided to go the ‘’Victor’’ way.

Look at what happened in the recent registration exercise? Victor regretted and Nana will regret.

Dramani, the most casual President of Ghana upset the Ewes by marginalising them in his government. I do not know what he thought he was doing. As a result, many Ewes both in VR and in the ‘’diaspora’’ did not vote in 2016. This presented Nana with the best chance to break NDC’s hold on Ewes building on the historical link between his family and the Ewes. What did he do? He unnecessarily antagonised Ewes and mobilised them for John Mahama. What a genius is this Nana guy?

Ewes are the most organised political ethnic group – no close 2nd. But that is not all. Gird your loins.

Ewes form 14% of Ghana’s population and Asantes 16%. Of this 14%, only 6% live in VR. The remaining 8% are diasporas across southern Ghana. The 8% represents the whole Ga population and 50% of all Asantes. Ewes are the 2nd largest group in every region in southern Ghana. That gives the NDC a solid foundation nationwide. NDC wins because of Ewes in the ‘’diaspora’’ not because of Ewes in VR.

Ewes rejection of NPP is not because they hate Akans. They voted for Danquah and Paa Willie. It is not because Rawlings was one of them. They voted 88.4% for Limann who was not one of them. It is because of bad behaviour of Busia and Owusu. What one man does wrongly, another man can undo rightly. Nana, the best person to correct the error has failed and will suffer the same fate as Owusu.

Let us continue to update and upgrade the data: 1992 & 1996 elections focusing on Ashanti and Volta

Candidates 1992AshantiVoltaNational
Rawlings32.993.258.3
Adu-Boahen60.53.630.4
    
Candidates 1996AshantiVoltaNational
Rawlings32.894.557.4
Kufuor65.84.739.8

NDC and NPP shared 88.7% of votes between them in 1992. By 1996, that figure has risen to 97.2%. the minor parties’ column collapsed and almost all the votes went to NPP. Especially in Ashanti, NDC votes remained the same and NPP collected all the votes that went to the minor parties in 1992. For the 1st time in the history of free & fair elections, the NPP tradition got almost 2/3 of Ashanti votes.

Up till 1996, why has the NPP tradition struggled to have the same dominance in Ashanti as their opponents in Volta?

Ashanti is the 2nd most cosmopolitan and urbanised region after Greater Accra. Probably no more than 2/3 of residents are Asantes. The more cosmopolitan a city or region is, the less the effect of indigenous vote. Accra is an example. Secondly, Asantes themselves are not politically homogenous. Even with the emergence of NLM, Nkrumah was able to get 43% of the popular vote in 1956.

If PNP and unknown Limann could within a year poll 62% nationwide, 88.4% in Volta and 43% in Ashanti, why was it not believable to some that Rawlings could get 58.3% nationwide, 93.2% in Volta and 32.8% in Ashanti. So, why did Nana lead the boycott of the 1992 Parliamentary elections?

My conclusion in this segment is that, the base share of NPP’s vote in Ashanti is in the mid-60s and that of NDC in Volta is in the late 80s. I predict, 65.5% & 33% for NPP & NDC respectively in Ashanti. I also predict 88% & 10% for NDC & NPP respectively in Volta. >75% NPP votes in Ashanti are rigged.

    2008 ELECTIONS  
Table 1TURN-OUT (TO) STATISTICS & VOTE COUNT (VC) 1st and 2nd rounds
      
Regions/TO + VC TO 1st round %TO 2nd round %TO Diff 2nd-1st 
Ashanti 73.6(1 677 285)83.3(1 918 569)9.7 
Volta 67.1(664 888)73.1(733 072)6 
National 69.5(8 465 834)72.9(9 001 478)3.4 
Table 2VOTE COUNT IN ASHANTI & VOLTA FOR NPP & NDC 
    
Regions/constituencies2008 1st round votes2008 2nd round votes2nd round -1st round
Ashanti NDC 438 243479 63341 390
Ashanti NPP 1 214 3501 438 820224 470
Volta NDC 551 046630 89979 853
Volta NPP 99 584102 1732 589
Table 3TOP 4 (WINNING) VOTE COUNT & TURN-OUT IN ASHANTI FOR NPP
       
 VC 1st rndVC 2nd rndDiff 2nd -1stTO 1st rndTO 2nd rndDiff 2nd -1st
Nhyaeiso37 04354 54517 50272.098.326.3
Manhyia66 11695 28129 16571.595.724.2
Suame47 76867 79020 02270.494.724.3
Bantama40 49356 22715 73470.993.822.9
Table 4TOP 4 (WINNING) VOTE COUNT & TURN-OUT IN VOLTA FOR NDC
       
 VC 1st rndVC 2nd rndDiff 2nd -1stTO 1st rndTO 2nd rndDiff 2nd -1st
Nth Tongu26 35631 636528071.382.911.6
Keta28 86433 693482972.382.610.3
Ho East21 16826 605543767.480.913.5
KETU STH56 484689591247562.573.911.4

All 4 tables are from ‘’Quo Vadis Sikaman’’ 13th July 2020 and authored by Nii Amu Darko

I know some do not like tables and things that look mathematical. The summary is to help this group.

  1. Ashanti TO increased by an amazing 9.7% (almost 3x) that of national TO of 3.4%. Volta’s increased by 6%, less than 2x the national TO. Volta’s TO of 73.1 is consistent with the national TO of 72.9. Ashanti’s 83.3% is way beyond the national TO of 73.1. Something is wrong.
  • Nana gained 224470 votes in Ashanti, while Mills got 79853 in Volta. Mills got 41390 votes in Ashanti, more than half of his votes in Volta. Every vote counts in Presidential elections.
  • Increase in 4 constituencies in Ashanti neutralized the entire increase in Volta. Watch Ashanti!
  • Increase in Manhyia alone neutralized the top 4 increases in Volta. I say, watch Ashanti again.
  • No constituency in Ghana’s history has recorded TO of more than 85%, except in Ashanti in

2008 (2) where 8 recorded more than 85% and 5 more than 90%. Shame on Ashanti NPP.

From 1992 to 2016, NPP share of vote in Ashanti has increased by whooping 15.2% (75.7-60.5). No region comes even close 2nd. In fact, NDC’s share in Volta has dropped in the same period from 93.2 to 82.5 or 10.7%. Mind you, Limann got 88.4% in Volta in 1979, so what is rigging if another candidate gets 82.5% or even 90% in 2016? Meanwhile Owusu got 57% in Ashanti in 1979, so it is statistically worrying if Akufo-Addo gets 75% in 2016. NDC be extra vigilant in Ashanti and the game will be over.

I call Election 2020 for NDC. Data never dies.

Tswa omanye aba.

Nii Amu Darko

1st December 2020

My last article before Election 2020– Free Boarding SHS: Obscene elitization of Education in Ghana.

Opinion: Dr. Nii Amu Darko

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