Ghana Election 2020: Dr. Nii Amu Darko’s Mood & Swing Theory
Recently, I made some predictions on a radio programme about the upcoming general elections. Obviously, I cannot force anyone to accept my predictions, but the interesting thing is that everybody is asking me for data this or data that. What they do not ask is that why do pollsters with all the data usually get it wrong? According to Einstein, we honour the servant and ignore the sacred gift.
Intuition is not random knowledge. It is meta knowledge, that is knowledge derived from knowledge.
Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of the book ‘’Gut feelings: The intelligence of the Unconscious says intuition is less about suddenly “knowing” the right answer and more about instinctively understanding what information is unimportant and can thus be discarded.
I have gone through the Survey from the Political Science Department of University of Ghana and the only information important to me is the fact that 56% of Ghanaians are strongly connected to either NDC or NPP. Instinctively, I give 30% to NPP as its primary vote and 26% to NDC. Of the 9.9% that are
Intuition is refined information in action and therefore in my opinion, the highest form of intelligence.
Between the 8th of May 2019 and 1st of June 2019, I made 3 predictions and they happened 100%. All pollsters got two of them wrong and most pollsters were scared to call the 3rd one.
Those who were following me on Facebook then are my witnesses. I never predict unless I have enough data to create my metadata -intuition is not random, it is not voodoo. It is applied intelligence.
My mood and swing method establishes antecedent data and the status quo, and then capture the mood of the observed population to estimate the swing that determine the outcome.
From all the data available to me (elections in Ghana from 1951 to 2016) and the mood on the ground, I predict a significant swing from Nana to result in his defeat if the 2016 elections are correct and the coming elections are free & fair. Do not ask about methodology in checking the mood. It is very easy.
Predictions for 2020
In 2016, there was 6.3% swing against JDM resulting in 6.2% swing to Nana and his significant win. The swing against the incumbent next month will be greater than in 2016. Governments lose power, oppositions do not snatch power, they receive it from failed governments. This is the reality for Ghana.
Many reasons are accountable for this deep swing against Nana. 6 major areas(A-PIECE) are:
To expand on the above later.
The mood is very much against this anaemic and dehydrated incumbent, the swing unfailingly follows.
Oral Ofori is Founder and Publisher at www.TheAfricanDream.net, a digital storyteller and producer, and also an information and research consultant.
