Ghana Election 2020: Dr. Nii Amu Darko’s Mood & Swing Theory

Albert Einstein said, “The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.

Recently, I made some predictions on a radio programme about the upcoming general elections. Obviously, I cannot force anyone to accept my predictions, but the interesting thing is that everybody is asking me for data this or data that. What they do not ask is that why do pollsters with all the data usually get it wrong? According to Einstein, we honour the servant and ignore the sacred gift.

Intuition is not random knowledge. It is meta knowledge, that is knowledge derived from knowledge.

Dr. Nii Amu Darko — File photo

Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of the book ‘’Gut feelings: The intelligence of the Unconscious says intuition is less about suddenly “knowing” the right answer and more about instinctively understanding what information is unimportant and can thus be discarded.

I have gone through the Survey from the Political Science Department of University of Ghana and the only information important to me is the fact that 56% of Ghanaians are strongly connected to either NDC or NPP. Instinctively, I give 30% to NPP as its primary vote and 26% to NDC. Of the 9.9% that are

somewhat attached to them, I give 3% to NPP and 6.9% to NDC. It means 34% are absolute floaters.

Intuition is refined information in action and therefore in my opinion, the highest form of intelligence.

Between the 8th of May 2019 and 1st of June 2019, I made 3 predictions and they happened 100%. All pollsters got two of them wrong and most pollsters were scared to call the 3rd one.

  • 8th May – I predicted ANC would for the 1st time dip below 60% in the South African elections and EFF would for the 1st time get more than 10%. ANC got 57.6% and EFF 10.4%
  • 18th May – I predicted the Coalition in Australia would gain 3-5seats to get 77-79 seats and retain power. Even on the morning of the election, the most respected pollsters, NewsPoll called the election for the Labour party with 77-78 seats. The Coalition won 78 and Labour 69.
  • 1st June – I predicted Liverpool would win the European Cup by beating Tottenham by at least 2 goals difference. Pollsters were scared to call the game. Liverpool won by 2-0.
  • Those who were following me on Facebook then are my witnesses. I never predict unless I have enough data to create my metadata -intuition is not random, it is not voodoo. It is applied intelligence.

    My mood and swing method establishes antecedent data and the status quo, and then capture the mood of the observed population to estimate the swing that determine the outcome.

    From all the data available to me (elections in Ghana from 1951 to 2016) and the mood on the ground, I predict a significant swing from Nana to result in his defeat if the 2016 elections are correct and the coming elections are free & fair. Do not ask about methodology in checking the mood. It is very easy.

    Predictions for 2020

    1. Minor parties & independents share of vote will shrink from 1.7% to about 1%. 75% of PPP
    voters will vote for NDC. Nana is perceived by them to have collapsed Nduom business. PPP
    polled 58.9% (1% of the 1.7%) of total votes of minor parties. Its crash collapses that column.
    2. NDC and NPP will share 99% of the vote. 53.6% +/- 2 for NDC and 45.4% +/- 2 for NPP.
    3. The serial results rejector, Nana (1992, 2008 and 2012) will not concede voluntarily.
    Discussion

    In 2016, there was 6.3% swing against JDM resulting in 6.2% swing to Nana and his significant win. The swing against the incumbent next month will be greater than in 2016. Governments lose power, oppositions do not snatch power, they receive it from failed governments. This is the reality for Ghana.

    Many reasons are accountable for this deep swing against Nana. 6 major areas(A-PIECE) are:

    1. Administrative – largest government ever, largest SC, largest local government etc
    2. Policy – LCT withdrawn. Ban on salvage cars withdrawn. Only Free SHS, itself a useless policy.
    3. Infrastructural development – nothing to show for the huge loans.
    4. Economic management – No reforms. Structure of economy the same. Largest borrower.
    5. Corruption – this is the most scandal -infested government ever.
    6. Ethnicity – the most ethnically imbalanced administration since Busia. Lots of ramifications.

    To expand on the above later.

    The mood is very much against this anaemic and dehydrated incumbent, the swing unfailingly follows.

    Opinion: Dr. Nii Amu Darko

    About Oral Ofori

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